The end of the tenure of Rep. Frank Lucas, R-Okla., as chairman of the House Agriculture Committee is only the beginning of likely changes in House committees affecting agriculture and food.

Lucas’s chairmanship is coming to an end because he has reached the end of the Republicans’ term limit on top committee posts. But Lucas may remain a committee chairman if he decides to challenge House Financial Services Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling, R-Texas, for the top post on that committee.

Lucas has acknowledged that he is considering that move but has not made a final decision. One of the issues facing Financial Services is reauthorization of the Export-Import Bank. Hensarling believes the bank should be shut down, but it is important to many small rural businesses as well as to big firms such as Boeing, Caterpillar and John Deere.

Since it seems highly likely that the Republicans will retain control of the House, the most likely successor to Lucas appears to be House Agriculture General Farm Commodities and Risk Management Subcommittee Chairman Michael Conaway of Texas.

In seniority Conaway is behind former House Agriculture Committee Chairman Bob Goodlatte of Virginia, but Goodlatte now chairs the House Judiciary Committee. Also ahead of Conaway in seniority are Rep. Randy Neugebauer of Texas, but he is a high ranking member of the House Financial Services Committee, where he chairs the Housing and Insurance Subcommittee, and Rep. Steve King, R-Iowa, who has taken such radical positions on immigration that he has offended the House leadership.

Rep. Mike Rogers of Alabama also ranks higher than Conaway, but he serves on Armed Services, on which he chairs the Strategic Forces Subcommittee, and on Homeland Security.

On the Democratic side, House Agriculture Committee ranking member Collin Peterson of Minnesota is still favored to win re-election, although that race appears to have tightened in recent days.

If Peterson were to lose, the next Democrat in line will be Rep. David Scott of Georgia. (Rep. Mike McIntyre of North Carolina has more seniority than Scott, but he is retiring.)

The membership of House Agriculture is hard to predict at this time. With the farm bill done, the committee is unlikely to be considered a very attractive assignment and a substantial number of current members may try to bolt for other committees.

The only major legislation likely to come up is reauthorization of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The committee passed the CFTC legislation this year and the House voted for it. But the Senate has not considered the bill, which may mean that both houses will have to consider the legislation in the next Congress.

Conaway is also likely to hold hearings on the supplemental nutrition assistance program (SNAP or food stamps) because Republicans have questioned whether eligibility for that program and management of it should be tightened up. The number of beneficiaries has gone down, however, which may lessen interest in making changes to it.

Congress will also take up reauthorization of the child nutrition programs, but in the House that bill comes under the jurisdiction of the House Education and Workforce Committee. That committee is chaired by Rep. John Kline of Michigan, who is term-limited but is expected to seek a waiver from the Republican rules.

Next in line to chair that committee would be Tom Petri of Wisconsin, but he is retiring. After him in seniority is Buck McKeon, but he already chairs the House Armed Services Committee. Next is Joe Wilson of South Carolina, who also serves on House Armed Services and Foreign Affairs.

If Kline doesn’t get his waiver, the most likely candidate seems to be Virginia Foxx of North Carolina.

On House Appropriations, Rep. Hal Rogers of Kentucky appears likely to remain chairman while Robert Aderholt of Alabama will continue to chair the House Agriculture Appropriations Subcommittee.

There will be at least one Republican opening on the subcommittee because Tom Latham of Iowa is retiring.

The other Republican members of the subcommittee are Alan Nunnelee of Misssippi, Kevin Yoder of Kansas, who has the rank of vice chairman, Jeff Fortenberry of Nebraska, Tom Rooney of Florida and David Valadao of California.

On the Democratic side, Rep. Sam Farr of California is expected to remain as ranking member. The other members of the subcommittee are Rosa DeLauro of Connecticut, Sanford Bishop Jr. of Georgia and Chellie Pingree of Maine.

The ratios on the House committees could change if Republicans win enough seats to demand a higher percentage of seats on each committee.